Tracking what management promised vs. what they delivered. Every guidance point sourced from SEC filings with verifiable links.
Hit rate: 62% | Missed: 38%
Optical transceiver maker riding AI/datacenter boom. Cyclical history with dramatic boom-bust pattern.
Hit rate: 100% | Exceeded: 96%
Creative & document cloud giant. Consistent beat-and-raise pattern — never missed quarterly guidance.
Hit rate: 95% | Missed: 5%
Social media / AR platform. Revenue & Adj. EBITDA guidance since Q3 2018. Gaps during COVID and macro uncertainty.
Hit rate: 100% | Missed: 0%
Most predictable compounder in enterprise SaaS. 20/20 quarterly beats, zero misses. $600M+ Now Assist AI ACV, targeting $15.5B+ in FY2026.
Hit rate: 100% | Missed: 0%
RPA & AI automation leader. Perfect guidance record since IPO — 17 exceeded, 2 met, 0 misses across 19 resolved quarters.
Hit rate: 94% | Missed: 6%
Optical networking & photonics leader. Revenue + EPS dual guidance. AI/datacom boom driving $2B quarterly revenue target by 2028.
Hit rate: 98% | Missed: 2%
Luxury consignment marketplace. GMV + Revenue + Adj. EBITDA triple guidance. Only 1 miss in 46 data points.
Hit rate: 50% | Missed: 50%
Semiconductor test & burn-in equipment. Annual guidance with quarterly bookings tracking. Dramatic FY2024 guidance revision cycle.
Hit rate: 93% | Missed: 7%
Medicare Advantage value-based care platform. Revenue + EBITDA + Membership. From $(33)M EBITDA to $110M in 4 years. Long-term strategic vision included.
Hit rate: 0% | Missed: 100%
Zinc-bromine battery energy storage. Never met initial guidance in 5 years. Massive backlog growth ($147M→$701M). Revenue hockey stick in FY2025.
Hit rate: 50% | Missed: 50%
CX/BPO giant post-Webhelp merger. Revenue beats but OI misses 3 straight years. Comprehensive AI disruption analysis with management response.
Hit rate: 90% | Missed: 0%
Largest US LNG exporter. Adj. EBITDA + DCF dual guidance. 20/20 Vision completed ~1 year early; $30/share DCF target by 2030.
Hit rate: 100% | Missed: 0%
Largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer. Production + capex + buyback guidance (no EPS/revenue). Donaldsonville CCS live; $4B Blue Point JV w/ JERA & Mitsui.
Hit rate: 80% | Missed: 20%
Compound semi substrates (InP, GaAs, Ge) for AI silicon photonics. China export permits gate revenue; Tongmei STAR IPO 4+ years pending.
Hit rate: 100% | Missed: 0%
TurboTax + QuickBooks + Credit Karma vs the AI disruption thesis. Anthropic partnership Feb 2026; AI agents driving ARPU up, not down.
Hit rate: 78% | Missed: 8%
From Bitcoin miner to Tier-2 AI-infra operator. Microsoft $9.7B anchor; $1.94B ARR; 140K GPU ramp to end CY2026.
Hit rate: 100% post-IPO | Leverage: ~4.0x
GPU-backed debt tower + OpenAI/Meta/MSFT mega-contracts. FY26 guide $12–13B rev, $30–35B capex.
Hit rate: 65% | FY25 rev: −21.8%
Renewable-native data center micro-cap. Briscoe Wind Farm acquired Apr 2026; AI pivot in progress, no named hyperscaler yet.
Hit rate: 38% | First GAAP profit Q4 2025
Premium Chinese EV with 3 brands (NIO/ONVO/Firefly) + BaaS swap network. 3 straight years of annual delivery misses, but Q1 2026 +98% YoY.
Guidance accuracy: 17% (2022) → 92% (2024)
AI insurtech turnaround: IPO $27 → $1 crash → $44 recovery. 316% combined ratio → 95%. Best-in-class loss ratio, Carvana embedded moat.
More companies coming soon