Note: CF Industries does not issue formal revenue or EPS guidance. Management provides annual guidance on
gross ammonia production,
capital expenditures,
share repurchase programs, and
low-carbon project milestones. This tracker follows that same framework.
$5B+
Returned to Shareholders since 2022
~1.9 MMt
Low-Carbon Ammonia Live (D'ville CCS)
Guidance Track Record
Exceeded — Actual above guidance high end (4)
Met — Actual inside guidance range (3)
Not Met — Actual below low end (0)
Pending — FY2026 in progress (2)
Annual Production & Capex Guidance
Gross Ammonia Production (MMt)
Annual Capital Expenditures ($M)
Detailed Guidance History
| FY | Metric | Guidance | Actual | Verdict | Notes |
|---|
FY2022 and earlier capex are historical actuals — CF did not issue formal forward capex ranges until FY2024. FY2026 capex guidance of ~$1.3B reflects Blue Point JV front-loading. Sources: CF 10-K filings, earnings releases 2022–2026.
Revision Timeline & Major Events
Mar 2023
Waggaman Acquisition Announced
$1.675B purchase from Incitec Pivot; newest ammonia unit in North America. Closed Nov 30, 2023.
Q2 2023
$3B Share Repurchase Program Authorized
Runs through Dec 2025; aggressive capital return commitment.
Feb 2024
FY2024 Guidance Issued
Gross ammonia ~10.0 MMt, capex $500–550M range established.
Feb 2024
Chris Bohn Promoted to COO
Manages manufacturing, sales, supply chain, clean energy initiatives.
Apr 2025
Blue Point JV FID Announced
$4B low-carbon ammonia facility. CF 40%, JERA 35%, Mitsui 25%. 1.4 MMtpy capacity online 2029.
Jul 2025
Donaldsonville CCS Live
~2 MMt CO2/year sequestered with ExxonMobil. ~1.9 MMt low-carbon ammonia certified; 45Q tax credit flowing.
Oct 2025
New $2B Buyback Authorized
Extends through 2029. Prior $3B program completed (~$2.6B repurchased through H1 2025).
Jan 2026
CEO Transition — Chris Bohn
Bohn becomes President & CEO Jan 5, 2026; Tony Will retires. Greg Cameron continues as CFO.
Feb 2026
FY2025 Results & FY2026 Guidance
FY2025 actual: 10.1 MMt production, $2.89B adj EBITDA, $7.08B revenue. FY2026 guidance: ~9.5 MMt (Yazoo City outage), ~$1.3B capex (Blue Point front-loading).
Strategic Projects
Low-Carbon Ammonia
~1.9 MMt/yr
Ownership
CF 40% / JERA 35% / Mitsui 25%
Location
Ascension Parish, LA
Seller
Incitec Pivot (IPL)
Management Insights — Recent Earnings Calls
Commentary from Q4 2023 through Q4 2025 calls. Management emphasizes tight global nitrogen supply, North American cost advantage, and CF's first-mover position in low-carbon ammonia. Leadership transition: Chris Bohn assumed President & CEO role Jan 5, 2026, succeeding Tony Will after a decade of leadership.
"China exported less than 300,000 metric tons of urea in 2024, 94% lower than 2023."
— Management (FY 2024 Results, Feb 2025)
"Changes in the energy markets steepened the global nitrogen cost curve and extended the margin advantage available to the company's North American manufacturing network."
— Management (Q2 2024 Earnings Call)
"The company returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, marking the highest level of capital return in over a decade."
— Management (FY 2024 Results)
"The company expects to begin sequestering CO2 and receiving the 45Q tax credit in 2025."
— Chris Bohn, then-COO (Q3 2024 Earnings Call)
Strategic Themes
Tight Global Nitrogen Supply
Chinese urea export controls (300kt in 2024 vs. multi-million in prior years), Russia/Belarus disruptions, European capacity closures, and Egypt/Iran/Trinidad gas shortages all support pricing.
North American Cost Advantage
Cheap US natural gas ($3.31/MMBtu 2025, but still advantaged) positions CF at the low end of the global cost curve. 97% utilization in 2025.
Low-Carbon Ammonia First-Mover
Donaldsonville CCS live July 2025 — CF is "the first and only producer with [low-carbon ammonia] tons to the market." Blue Point JV extends leadership to 2029.
Aggressive Capital Return
$5B+ returned via buybacks & dividends since 2022. $3B program completed; new $2B authorization runs through 2029. 37.6M shares repurchased (~19% of share count baseline).
Strong Ag Demand
North America, India, Brazil leading demand growth. Corn acreage expectations supportive. Industrial/clean-fuel demand adds new vertical.
Yazoo City Outage Headwind
Complex down through Q3 2026 due to equipment lead times; caps FY2026 production at ~9.5 MMt vs. 10.1 MMt in 2025.
45Q Tax Credit Tailwind
CCS sequestration qualifies for §45Q credits — projected ~$150–200M annual FCF contribution from carbon projects by 2030.
CEO Transition
Chris Bohn (President/CEO Jan 2026) brings operations & clean energy continuity. Tony Will retired after leading decade of transformation.
Bull vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Structural supply tightness: China restrictions + Russia disruption + European closures.
- North American gas cost advantage locked in for foreseeable future.
- CCS projects unlock $150–200M FCF by 2030 + 10-year 45Q credit runway.
- Blue Point JV monetizes decarbonization demand; JERA/Mitsui derisk capital.
- $2B buyback through 2029 + strong dividend support total-return thesis.
- Corn, India, Brazil demand growth remains robust; spring 2026 application strong.
Bear Case
- Commodity cycle inherently volatile; 2025 margins pressured by 38% gas cost spike.
- Yazoo City outage caps FY2026 production — visible near-term headwind.
- China gradual re-entry could loosen global balances from 2027+.
- Blue Point is multi-year ($4B) execution risk before 2029 cash flow.
- Russia geopolitical thaw would add supply back to global market.
- FY2026 capex $1.3B vs. $518M in 2024 — large step-up compresses near-term FCF.
Recent Financial Actuals
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|
| Gross Ammonia Production (MMt) | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| Net Sales ($B) | $6.63 | $5.94 | $7.08 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($B) | $2.76 | $2.28 | $2.89 |
| Net Earnings ($B) | $1.53 | $1.22 | ~$1.46 |
| Operating Cash Flow ($B) | $2.76 | $2.27 | $2.75 |
| Capex ($M) | $499 | $518 | ~$525 |
| Share Repurchases ($B) | Program start | $1.94 | ~$0.66 (H1) |
Long-Term Strategic Targets
Scope 1 GHG Reduction
25% reduction by 2030 vs. 2015 baseline. 16% already achieved through 2023.
Net-Zero Ambition
Net-zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2050 across the CF manufacturing network.
Low-Carbon Ammonia Capacity
~1.9 MMt today (Donaldsonville CCS) → +1.4 MMt (Blue Point 2029) ≈ 3.3+ MMt low-carbon by 2030.
CCS FCF Contribution
Expected $150–200M annual FCF from carbon-abatement projects and §45Q credits by 2030.