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Quantum Computing

QBTS D-Wave Quantum

Quantum annealing + quantum-as-a-service. Not services-as-software thesis-aligned — speculative quantum compute exposure.

Neutral Rank 185 · IGV constituent

Last price

$21.69

Market cap

$8.0B

As of

19 April 2026

Live quote sourced from Yahoo Finance. Prices cited in narrative below reflect the original memo date and may be stale.

Scores · adapted framework

Enabler

2 / 10

Autopilot adoption

3 / 10

Disruption risk

7 / 10

Efficiency upside

2 / 10

The Sequoia matrix

Intelligence / Judgment

Not applicableQuantum compute is not AI workload itself.

Copilot posture

Not applicableNo copilot product.

Autopilot posture

Not applicableQuantum applications (optimisation, chemistry, ML) are downstream.

Data moat

ModerateQuantum annealing IP + Leap cloud platform.

Execution layer

Not applicableNo software execution surface.

The memo

State of play · QBTS

QBTS traded near $21.7 in April 2026 after a 2024 retail rally. FY26 revenue ~$30M. Operating losses continuing. Speculative on quantum advantage demonstrations.

Thesis angle

D-Wave is a quantum computing speculation — not services-as-software thesis. Verdict 'neutral' because the lens doesn't apply.

The framing

Speculation on quantum computing commercialisation rather than software thesis.

Two forces, opposite directions

Tailwind · Quantum computing optionality + AI-era demand.

Quantum computing could benefit from AI-era demand for optimisation + chemistry + ML workloads.

Quantum optionality
Leap cloud platform
Government + research contracts
Annealing IP
Retail momentum

Headwind · Pre-commercial + speculative + capital needs.

Revenue minimal; operating losses continue; quantum advantage demonstrations still speculative.

Pre-commercial revenue
Operating losses
Quantum advantage speculative
Capital needs
Not thesis-aligned

Commercialisation uncertain.

D-Wave business

Line	Status	Posture	Thesis read
Quantum annealing systems	Commercial	Infrastructure	Non-thesis
Leap quantum cloud	Subscription	Quantum-as-a-service	Non-thesis
Professional services	Revenue	Human-led	Non-thesis

Quantum compute speculation; services-as-software thesis not applicable.

Bull case

Quantum optionality.

AI-era demand.

Annealing IP.

Proprietary architecture.

Retail momentum.

Narrative trading.

Bear case

Pre-commercial revenue.

Minimal.

Operating losses.

Continuing.

Not services-as-software.

Thesis doesn't apply.

Sequoia-framework fit

Not applicable. Quantum computing speculation; services-as-software thesis does not apply.

Investor takeaway

Quantum computing speculation. Not thesis-aligned.

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