Services, the new software — applied to the Nasdaq-100 + IGV software universe.

A full reading of 185 public companies — the Nasdaq-100 plus every software name in the iShares IGV ETF — through Sequoia's autopilot thesis: who sells the shovels, who is migrating from tools to outcomes, who gets bypassed, and who is simply orthogonal. The IGV expansion adds 80 software-layer pure-plays where the services-as-software thesis bites hardest.

Summary

The Sequoia argument is straightforward: the next trillion-dollar company will not sell AI tools by the seat but AI outcomes by the job, capturing services budgets rather than software budgets. The question for a public-markets investor is where the Nasdaq-100 and the broader IGV software universe sit in that shift. Read across the combined index (185 names), a clean five-way sort emerges.

Pure enablers — NVIDIA, Broadcom, AWS, and the semiconductor-equipment names (ASML, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT) plus memory (Micron) — sit upstream of every autopilot and receive the tailwind regardless of which startup wins any given vertical. The cleanest thesis vehicles in the index.

Hybrid transitioners — Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Palantir, Shopify, Intuit, Workday, Adobe, Synopsys, Cadence — each straddle enabler and autopilot-builder roles. They have credible data moats, are visibly moving from seat pricing toward outcomes, and carry specific near-term risk tied to their legacy monetisation shape.

Autopilot-native businesses — Tesla's FSD-as-robotaxi, Palantir AIP, Shopify Sidekick, Axon Evidence.com — literally sell outcomes, not tools. Small in count, high in thesis purity.

Disruption-exposed incumbents — Cognizant, Thomson Reuters, ADP, Paychex, Intuit (dual exposure), PayPal, Charter/Comcast — where the services or tool revenue most directly overlaps with what autopilot startups are building toward. These are where the thesis bites hardest.

Orthogonal names — utilities, bottlers, railroads, retail staples, oilfield services, most biotech — sit largely outside the thesis perimeter. The framework applies weakly and verdict defaults to Neutral on thesis grounds; own them for other reasons.

The map

Horizontal: picks-and-shovels exposure (Enabler score). Vertical: share of current revenue at risk of being bypassed by an autopilot. Bubble size: relative position in the Nasdaq-100 at the time this note was drafted — larger bubbles are the mega-caps. Only the top-15 anchors are labelled; hover any bubble for the full read.

The matrix

Each company read along Sequoia's Intelligence-vs-Judgment axis, their current copilot and autopilot posture, the shape of their data moat, and the reach of their execution layer. Hover any badge for the rationale; click any company name for its memo.

The constituents

185 names — Nasdaq-100 plus every IGV software holding. Controls above filter both the matrix and this list together. Click any company for the full memo.