Services · the new software · Research Note №1 · Memo 157 of 185TDC · ← Overview
Enterprise Analytics / Cloud Data
TDC
Teradata
Enterprise analytics incumbent pivoting to VantageCloud + ClearScape Analytics. AI optionality is real but cloud migration + Snowflake/Databricks competition dominate.
WatchRank 157 · IGV constituent
Last price
$27.10
Market cap
$2.6B
As of
19 April 2026
Live quote sourced from Yahoo Finance. Prices cited in narrative below reflect the original memo date and may be stale.
Scores · adapted framework
Enabler
6 / 10
Autopilot adoption
5 / 10
Disruption risk
2 / 10
Efficiency upside
5 / 10
The Sequoia matrix
Intelligence / Judgment
Intelligence-leaningEnterprise analytics + in-database ML + BI are intelligence-leaning workloads.
Copilot posture
ModerateAskTeradata + ClearScape provide copilot-style analytics exploration for enterprise BI teams.
Autopilot posture
LimitedClearScape in-database ML supports model training + inference; fully autonomous analytics workflows limited.
Data moat
ModerateLarge enterprise workload + IP in banking + telco + retail; narrower than Snowflake/Databricks platform moats.
TDC traded near $27.1 in April 2026. FY26 revenue ~$1.7B, cloud ARR growing 30%+ but total ARR flat. Operating margin mid-teens. CEO Steve McMillan managing cloud transition. Stock well off multi-year highs.
Thesis angle
Teradata's thesis angle is narrow: VantageCloud + ClearScape + AI agents for enterprise analytics. Labor substitution in BI/analyst teams is real but the cloud migration + competitive pressure from Snowflake/Databricks dominate the equity story. Services-as-software read: thesis-adjacent, not core.
The framing
Bulls see Teradata as a value + cloud-transition turnaround with AI optionality. Bears cite share loss to Snowflake/Databricks + flat total ARR. Verdict 'watch' on execution.
Two forces, opposite directions
Tailwind · Enterprise analytics + AI agents.
VantageCloud + ClearScape position Teradata for AI-era analytics. Large enterprise incumbents don't want to move all workloads to Snowflake. Cloud ARR growth 30%+.
Snowflake + Databricks are the default for new enterprise analytics workloads. Teradata's cloud transition is real but total ARR is flat — cloud growth is offsetting legacy decline. Share loss in new-logo is structural.
Snowflake + Databricks take new-logo share
Total ARR flat
Legacy on-prem decline
AI agent story still aspirational
Margin profile below cloud-native peers
Cloud transition must clear to unlock value.
Teradata revenue mix
Line
Mix
AI posture
Thesis read
Cloud (VantageCloud)
~30%
ClearScape + AI agents
Thesis-aligned
Subscription (on-prem)
~55%
Legacy analytics
Thesis-adjacent
Perpetual + services
~15%
Legacy
Non-thesis
Cloud is the thesis engine but on-prem + perpetual decline the drag.
Bull case
VantageCloud growth 30%+.
Cloud transition is real.
ClearScape in-database ML differentiated.
Enterprises value in-database analytics.
Margin discipline under new CEO.
Operating leverage emerging.
Valuation modest.
Trades at value multiple.
Bear case
Snowflake + Databricks win new-logo.
Structural share loss.
Total ARR flat.
Cloud growth offset by legacy decline.
AI agent story aspirational.
ClearScape adoption modest.
Enterprise analytics TAM contested.
Many alternatives.
Sequoia-framework fit
Thesis-adjacent. Enterprise analytics + AI agents is a slot but cloud-native competition dominates. Verdict 'watch'.
Investor takeaway
A value turnaround with cloud transition + AI optionality. Watch for total ARR inflection.